Selected Papers

Subnational population estimation in England and Wales

Dynamic Population Model Project Team. (2023). Design and Implementation of the Dynamic Population Model: Version 2.0 https://uksa.statisticsauthority.gov.uk/wp-content/uploads/2023/02/EAP193-DPM-progress-report-and-technical-paper.pdf

Modelling and forecasting childhood obesity using admin data

Bryant, J., Rittirong, J., Aekplakorn, W., Mo-suwan, L., & Nitnara, P. (2022).
A Bayesian approach to combining multiple information sources: Estimating and forecasting childhood obesity in Thailand. PLOS ONE.
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0262047

Using multiple data sources to estimate and forecast childhood obesity

Estimating obesity rates for small groups

Rittirong, J., Bryant, J., Aekplakorn, W., Prohmmo, A., & Sunpuwan, M. (2021).
Obesity and occupation in Thailand: using a Bayesian hierarchical model to obtain prevalence estimates from the National Health Examination Survey. BMC Public Health, 21, 914.
https://doi.org/10.1186/s12889-021-10944-0

Forecasting migration with small counts

Zhang, J., & Bryant, J. (2020).
Bayesian disaggregated forecasts: Internal migration in Iceland. In S. Mazzuco & N. Keilman (Eds.), Developments in Demographic Forecasting. Springer.
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-42472-5_10

Bayesian benchmarking of small area estimates

Zhang, J., & Bryant, J. (2020).
Fully Bayesian benchmarking of small area estimation models. Journal of Official Statistics, 36(1), 197–223.
https://doi.org/10.2478/jos-2020-0010

Combining multiple imperfect data sources for small area estimation

Zhang, J., & Bryant, J. (2019).
Combining multiple imperfect data sources for small area estimation: a Bayesian model of provincial fertility rates in Cambodia. Statistical Theory and Related Fields, 3(2), 178–185.
https://doi.org/10.1080/24754269.2019.1658062

Brief introduction to Bayesian demography

Bijak, J., & Bryant, J. (2019).
Bayesian demography. Statistics Reference Online. John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
https://doi.org/10.1002/9781118445112.stat07838

Bayesian small area demography

Zhang, J., Bryant, J., & Nissen, K. (2019).
Bayesian small area demography. Survey Methodology, 45(1).
https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/12-001-x/2019001/article/00001-eng.pdf

Bayesian forecasting of demographic rates for small areas

Bryant, J., & Zhang, J. (2016).
Bayesian forecasting of demographic rates for small areas: Emigration rates by age, sex, and region in New Zealand, 2014–2038. Statistica Sinica, 26, 1337–1364.
https://doi.org/10.5705/ss.202015.0345

Bayesian demography 250 years after Bayes

Bijak, J., & Bryant, J. (2016).
Bayesian demography 250 years after Bayes. Population Studies, 70(1), 1–19.
https://doi.org/10.1080/00324728.2015.1122826

Probabilistic forecasts for informed decision making

Bijak, J., Alberts, I., Alho, J., Bryant, J., Buettner, T., Falkingham, J., Forster, J., Gerland, P., King, T., Onorante, L., Keilman, N., O’Hagan, A., Owens, D., Raftery, A., Ševčíková, H., & Smith, P. (2016).
Letter to the Editor: Probabilistic population forecasts for informed decision making. Journal of Official Statistics, 31(4), 537–544.
https://doi.org/10.1515/jos-2015-0035

A Bayesian approach to population estimation

Bryant, J., & Graham, P. (2015).
A Bayesian approach to population estimation with administrative data. Journal of Official Statistics, 31(3).
https://doi.org/10.1515/jos-2015-0028

Bayesian demographic accounts

Bryant, J., & Graham, P. (2013).
Bayesian demographic accounts: Subnational population estimation using multiple data sources. Bayesian Analysis, 8(3), 591–622.
https://doi.org/10.1214/13-BA820