Demography for the twenty-first century

 

We are developing a new, modern approach to demographic estimation and forecasting. Along the way, we are helping clients analyse data and build statistical processing systems.

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Working with colleagues from around the world, researchers at Bayesian Demography Limited are constructing a new framework for demography. The new framework combines the latest ideas from Bayesian statistics and data science with the insights of traditional demography. We specialise in detailed estimates and forecasts, and in integrating multiple data sources.

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We are developing our framework in the open. We document our methods in international scientific journals, and we implement them in open source software that anyone can download and use. Our 2018 book describes our approach.

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Current projects include:

• Helping the UK Office for National Statistics redesign its population estimation system, using the framework of Bayesian Demographic Accounts, as proposed in our book. Technical description here.

• Working with the International Labour Organization to develop new, simple methods for small area estimation of child labour

• Contributing to an international collaborative project to development methods for household and family projections. 

• Working with the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare to develop new methods, based administrative data, for estimating the life expectancy of First Nations Australians. 

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If you'd like to talk about our work, or have an idea for a project, please contact John Bryant at john@bayesiandemography.com​

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